Iranian Women Growing in Influence

I stumbled upon this article the other day. It claims that demographic trends in Iran have been influencing the politics of the country since the 70’s and continue to do so now.

When hordes of young students participated in protests that brought down the Shah in the late 70’s, the birth rate was 6.5 children per woman. That’s plummeted, to 1.7 today according to the CIA’s World Fact Book.

This article claims it could be even lower than that,

Philip Jenkins, professor of history and religious studies at Pennsylvania State University, claims from the latest U.N. data that the real fertility rate may already be the lowest in the world at 0.66 children per woman.

The high birthrate in the 70’s lead to a large number of youth in the 80’s, giving Iran the soldiers needed to fend off Saddam’s army, and the activists to overthrow the Shah. This latest demographic shift might has similarly revolutionary results, and if so, could be influencing current Iranian nuclear policy.

The low fertility rates are probably related to the role of women in Iranian society. After the Iran-Iraq war, the state created sexual education and contraception, as the article points out “Iran remains the only country in the world in which a young couple before marriage must both undergo courses in contraception and family planning.”

In addition, the governments educational expansion has benefited women more than men with up to 70% of college graduates being female. The result is a more educated Iranian woman, sexually, occupationally, and politically. It seems clear to me that this would threaten the patriarchal power structure in Iran, and create a pressure for practical change.

The article is more concerned with the currently large supply of young men,

There is a controversy about this. Jenkins thinks that the demographic shifts mean that Iran is likely to become a stable, placid and peaceful country. Others fear that today's plentiful availability of cannon-fodder means Iran could be highly aggressive over the coming decade.

But there are also domestic implications to bear in mind. Large numbers of unemployed young men tend to be a potentially destabilizing force in society and to be associated with increased levels of crime and violence, at least until they are socialized by marriage and the responsibilities of parenthood. But with marriage in decline and fewer children being born, the fewer men are likely to be tamed by the responsibilities of family life.